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The selectorate in a fragmented democracy. The logic of political survival of Pedro Sánchez's governments (2018-2026) (El selectorado en una democracia fragmentada)

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  Political Analysis Report This political science essay examines the political survival logic of the governments led by Pedro Sánchez in Spain (2018–2026) through the lens of Selectorate Theory. Departing from simplified or purely situational interpretations, the author utilizes this formal political economy framework to demonstrate that governmental action during this period responds to a predictable and systematic incentive structure. The methodological starting point introduces a conceptual extension to the classic model: the distinction between the formal selectorate (the broad and stable body of eligible voters in Spain) and the functional survival coalition (the small core of parliamentary actors whose concurrence and specific support are indispensable in every vote to prevent the fall of the Executive). English version of the essay at this link (PDF 42 pages) Presentation-Summary Visual Informe de análisis político Este ensayo politológico examina la lógica de superviven...

Radical Right in Latin America Causes, Variants, and Scope of a Phenomenon of Its Own (Derecha radical en América Latina. Causas, variantes y alcance de un fenómeno propio)

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      Political Analysis Book In Amazon In just a few years, Latin America went from being a secondary setting in the study of the radical right to becoming one of its most active laboratories in the world. Javier Milei is dismantling the Argentine state with his fiscal "chainsaw"; Nayib Bukele governs El Salvador under a permanent state of exception with approval ratings close to 90%; José Antonio Kast wins Chile's presidency six years after the most massive social outburst in the country's democratic history; Bolsonarism survives in Brazil despite its founder's electoral defeat and the attempted coup of January 8; and in Ecuador, Peru and Colombia the conservative turn is intertwined with a polarization that paralyzes governability. This book, the third volume of a trilogy on the global radical right, offers the monographic analysis of Latin America that its two previous installments left pending. Its central thesis is that the Latin American radical right is ...

The cultural war as a contemporary political phenomenon (La guerra cultural como fenómeno político contemporáneo)

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      Political Analysis Report This academic essay analyzes the "culture war" as one of the fundamental axes of political polarization in contemporary democracies across Europe, the United States, and Latin America. Moving beyond oversimplified analyses, the work investigates the origins, dynamics, and causal mechanisms of these conflicts centered around moral values, collective identities, and worldviews, assessing the extent to which they represent a defensive conservative backlash or a mutation of class struggle following the collapse of the Soviet bloc. English version of the book at this link (PDF 96 pages) Presentation-Summary Visual Informe de análisis político Este ensayo académico analiza la «guerra cultural» como uno de los ejes fundamentales de la polarización política en las democracias contemporáneas de Europa, Estados Unidos y América Latina. Frente a análisis simplificadores, la obra investiga los orígenes, dinámicas y mecanismos causales de estos conflic...

A WEARY AND ERRATIC EMPIRE The cycle of US intervention and failure in the Arab-Muslim world (UN IMPERIO FATIGADO Y ERRÁTICO El ciclo de intervención y fracaso de Estados Unidos en el mundo árabe-musulmán)

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    Political Analysis Report A Weary and Erratic Empire is an essay of political and historical analysis that examines a recurring pattern in United States foreign policy: the cycle of military intervention, stalemate, precipitous withdrawal, and abandonment of allies that has repeated itself from Lebanon in 1982 to the conflict with Iran in 2025-2026, passing through Somalia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, and Yemen. The author argues that this pattern does not respond to isolated errors on the part of specific administrations, nor to partisan differences, but to a structural dysfunction that runs through Democratic and Republican governments alike. English version of the book at this link (PDF 167 pages) Informe de análisis político Un imperio fatigado y errático es un ensayo de análisis político e histórico que examina un patrón recurrente en la política exterior estadounidense: el ciclo de intervención militar, estancamiento, retirada precipitada y abandono de aliados...

De la falsa regeneración a la corrupción bajo Pedro Sánchez (2018-2026)

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  Libro de análisis político El libro analiza el ciclo político abierto en España en 2018 con la moción de censura que llevó a Pedro Sánchez a la Moncloa tras la sentencia del caso Gürtel contra el PP, y lo cierra en junio de 2026 trazando un balance demoledor: el partido que se presentó como adalid de la "regeneración democrática" termina protagonizando, según el autor, el episodio de corrupción institucional más grave de la democracia española. El relato recorre cronológicamente la etapa Sánchez: la moción de censura de 2018, la repetición electoral de 2019, el primer gobierno de coalición con Unidas Podemos (2020-2023) y la investidura de 2023 lograda como segunda fuerza gracias a las concesiones a ERC, Junts, PNV y EH Bildu, entre ellas la ley de amnistía del procés. El autor sostiene que esa dependencia de socios con agendas dispares ha producido tres legislaturas sin Presupuestos aprobados, un uso masivo del decreto ley y una creciente parálisis institucional. El núcleo...

POLARIZED DEMOCRACIES Political Polarization and the Crisis of Representation in the Contemporary World (DEMOCRACIAS POLARIZADAS Polarización política y crisis de representación en el mundo contemporáneo)

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  Political Analysis Report The essay "Democracias Polarizadas" by Jesús Sánchez Rodríguez (June 2026) offers a profound diagnosis of the crisis of contemporary democracies, characterized not as a conjunctural phenomenon, but as a structural transformation in which the adversary is perceived as an enemy. The author argues that current polarization—observed from Latin America to the United States and Europe—is a symptom of a crisis of representation and of the loss of the idea of the common good. Unlike the historical episodes of the interwar period or the Cold War, this fracture is "post-ideological" and "liquid": populist movements, both of the right and of the left, lack coherent utopian projects and base their success on the contestation of the system and on resentment, rather than on programmatic proposals. English version of the repport at this link (PDF 48 pages) Informe de análisis político El ensayo "Democracias Polarizadas" de Jesús S...

THE GEOPOLITICAL POWDER KEG OF THE ARAB-MUSLIM WORLD (EL POLVORÍN GEOPOLÍTICO DEL MUNDO ÁRABE-MUSULMÁN)

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    Political Analysis Book In Amazon There are regions that concentrate, within a small space, all the contradictions of the modern world. The Middle East is, without any doubt, the densest and most stubborn of them all. With this book, Jesús Sánchez Rodríguez delivers a work of broad scope and encyclopedic ambition: an implacable X-ray of the five decades of upheavals that have turned the Arab-Muslim world into the great laboratory in which the most urgent questions of our time are being settled. Can democracy be implanted at the point of a bayonet? Is political Islamism compatible with pluralism? What happens when states created on the paper of a colonial agreement begin to disintegrate? The answers offered by Middle East are brutal, complex and, above all, indispensable. From the triple betrayal of Sykes-Picot, McMahon and Balfour —the incompatible promises that three empires made over the same territories— to the 2026 war between the United States, Israel and Iran that s...

Betrayed Democracy: Political Loyalties, Structural Irrationality, and Institutional Degradation (La democracia traicionada: lealtades políticas, irracionalidad estructural y degradación institucional )

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      Political Analysis Report Betrayed Democracy: Political Loyalties, Structural Irrationality, and Institutional Degradation is a political science essay by Jesús Sánchez Rodríguez that addresses a central paradox of contemporary democracies: why do parties that betray their voters, accumulate corruption, and fail to keep their promises not only survive electorally, but in many cases retain massive support? The author's central thesis is that this apparent irrationality is not an isolated anomaly within the system, but rather a structural feature of mass representative democracy. The system generates, more or less inevitably, the conditions for its own deterioration. English version of the book at this link (PDF 76 pages) Informe de análisis político La democracia traicionada: lealtades políticas, irracionalidad estructural y degradación institucional es un ensayo de ciencia política de Jesús Sánchez Rodríguez que aborda una paradoja central de las democracias con...

The PKK and Democratic Confederalism. An unprecedented sociopolitical experiment in the midst of war (El PKK y el confederalismo democrático Un experimento sociopolítico insólito en medio de la guerra)

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    Political Analysis Report There are reports that aspire to document and reports that aspire to understand. This is one of the latter. The PKK and Democratic Confederalism — a work by the political scientist and essayist Jesús Sánchez Rodríguez, also the author of The Impossible Paths of the Left and Mapping Political Thought — is an in-depth analysis of one of the most original, least known, and most misunderstood political experiments of recent decades: the transformation of a Kurdish Marxist-Leninist guerrilla movement into the world’s foremost proponent of so-called democratic confederalism, and its practical application in the part of northern Syria known as Rojava. English version of the book at this link (PDF 108 pages) Informe de análisis político Hay informes que aspiran a documentar y hay informes que aspiran a comprender. Este es de los segundos. El PKK y el confederalismo democrático —obra del politólogo y ensayista Jesús Sánchez Rodríguez, autor también de ...

Mapping Political Thought The Great Western Traditions and Their Contemporary Challenges (Cartografía del pensamiento político Las grandes tradiciones occidentales y sus desafíos contemporáneos)

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  Political Analysis Book In Amazon What is the relationship between the individual and society? What makes a political order legitimate? Is freedom compatible with equality? These questions are not new, but they acquire renewed urgency at a moment when the postwar liberal consensus shows deep cracks, collective identities assert their place against individualism, and structural inequalities put the foundations of democratic coexistence to the test. Mapping Western Political Thought is an exercise in comparative analysis that traverses the great traditions of contemporary political philosophy with the purpose of illuminating the deep assumptions underlying each one: their conception of the subject and of the community, their vision of human nature, and their response to the question of the origin and legitimacy of the political. The itinerary begins with the two great traditions that have dominated modern debate. Liberalism is examined in all its internal plurality, from class...

DEMOCRATIC EROSION IN SPAIN DURING THE GOVERNMENTS OF PEDRO SÁNCHEZ (2018-2026) (LA EROSIÓN DEMOCRÁTICA EN ESPAÑA DURANTE LOS GOBIERNOS DE PEDRO SÁNCHEZ )

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  Political Analysis Report This report goes beyond a diagnosis of the Spanish case. Its most original contribution is one that confronts a persistent blind spot in the academic literature on democratic erosion: the tendency to associate the phenomenon exclusively with radical populisms of the right and left. Spain demonstrates that erosion can also emerge from the centre of the political system, from a party belonging to the European social-democratic tradition, a member of the Party of European Socialists, governing within the framework of the European Union and NATO. The cases of Romania, Albania, and Malta — analysed in comparative perspective — confirm that there exists a recognisable pattern of institutional deterioration within the European socialist family that has until now not received the academic scrutiny it deserves. English version of the book at this link (PDF 124 pages) Informe  de análisis político Este informe va más allá del diagnóstico del caso español. Su ...

THE END OF THE ORBÁN ERA Illiberal Democracy, Electoral Defeat and Global Consequences (EL FIN DE LA ERA ORBÁN Democracia iliberal, derrota electoral y consecuencias globales)

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      Political Analysis Report On April 12, 2026, Hungary experienced an unprecedented electoral upheaval: the Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, secured 138 of the 199 seats in Parliament, stripping Viktor Orbán of a two-thirds supermajority after sixteen years of uninterrupted governance. With a turnout nearing 80%—the highest since the fall of communism—Hungarians brought an end to what the author terms the grand experiment of European "illiberal democracy." The report reconstructs Orbán's ascent since his return to power in 2010: the passing of a tailor-made new Constitution, the systematic capture of the media under the KESMA platform, the subordination of the judiciary, and the creation of a clientelistic oligarchy that transformed corruption into the essential lubricant of the system. Added to this institutional framework was a risky geopolitical wager: the alliance with Putin and Trumpism, which ultimately isolated Hungary within the European Union and blocked m...

CRISIS, PARADIGMS AND RECONFIGURATION OF THE WORLD ORDER Major economic crises as catalysts of political-ideological change (1945-2026) CRISIS, PARADIGMAS Y RECONFIGURACIÓN DEL ORDEN MUNDIAL Las grandes crisis económicas como catalizadores del cambio político-ideológico (1945-2026)

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    Political Analysis Report The historical analysis traces four major cycles. The first is the Keynesian postwar order (1945–1973), built upon the Bretton Woods agreements, which combined market capitalism with strong state intervention and gave rise to the so-called "Thirty Glorious Years" — decades of sustained growth and declining inequality. The second cycle begins with the oil crisis of 1973, which introduced stagflation — simultaneous inflation and unemployment — a phenomenon that Keynesianism could neither explain nor resolve, thereby opening the way for the neoliberal revolution of Thatcher and Reagan. The third cycle encompasses the collapse of Soviet communism (1989–1991), which consecrated liberal globalisation and the so-called "end of history", albeit with the notable exception of the Chinese model of state capitalism without liberal democracy. The fourth cycle, initiated by the Great Recession of 2008, exposed the contradictions of financial neoliber...

THE PERMANENT ENERGY WAR. Fossil fuel dependence, geopolitical shocks and the limits of the green transition (LA GUERRA ENERGÉTICA PERMANENTE Dependencia fósil, choques geopolíticos y los límites de la transición verde)

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    Political Analysis Report This report uses the crisis Iran war) as a lens through which to examine a structural reality that the conflict has made suddenly visible, but which has been building for decades. Despite forty years of climate commitments, falling renewable costs and record clean-energy investment, fossil fuels still accounted for eighty-six per cent of global energy consumption in 2024 — the same share as in 1984. The Persian Gulf, with over half the world's proven oil reserves and a single sea outlet at Hormuz, remains the indispensable node of a system that has never found a durable alternative. The bypass capacity around the strait covers, at best, one quarter of normal flows; the remaining fifteen million barrels per day have nowhere else to go. English version of the document at this link (PDF 22 pages) English version of the book at this link (PDF 130 pages )  Informe  de análisis político Este informe utiliza la crisis como lente a través de la ...